Small Risks and Big Cautions
Nowadays people are becoming more and more aware about the risks of getting infected by HIV virus. My father is one of those who really concerns about. Whenever I decide to cut my hairs he emphasizes me not to let the barber shave the hairs on the back of my neck using a razor. Getting infected through the blood drops remained from the previous customers is one of those ways elaborated by awareness building campaigns as one possible risky one which people should be cautious about.
Do you have any idea about the level of risk to get HIV through such an incident? I tried to calculate it:
1) According to the official stats, the total number of HIV positive people in Iran is 13000. Let say this is not a correct figure and we replace it with more realistic number of 35000. It means that 1 out of 2000 of all Iranians is a HIV infected guy.
2) The razor does not cut the skin all the time. It also has to cut both my skin and that one of the previous man to transfer the virus. The total possibility is something like (1/5)*(1/5)= 4%
3) Assuming that the person was HIV positive and the razor injured both of us, how much my chance of getting HIV is? Nobody knows for sure, but some papers report the possibility of 1/100 to get infected while your blood is exposed to the body liquids of an infected person carried on an injection needle.
4) HIV virus can not survive outside the body fluids. It will die immediately if the blood drops dry. If the barber shop works fully the average time between shaving the previous customer and the next one is usually 20-30 minutes. The literature says that a large part of the viruses will die in this time interval. Therefore it reduces the risk very significantly and in some case makes it close to zero. Let take 1/10 as an average reduced effectiveness factor.
So the total risk of getting infected is (1/2000)*(1/25)*(1/100)*(1/10)=1/50,000,000! Yes One over Fifty Millions! But I and probably everybody else will still be terrified by even such a tinny amount of risk. This is the behavior of human being. It could be justified somehow by multiplying it to its costs: Die in a few years! Extend it to case of a useless and aviodable war which we will talk about later.
Comments
Dear Hamed
I would like to congratulate your new english weblog and wish you goodluck!
Posted by: Reza Rajaee | April 19, 2006 12:23 PM
And note that how much we 'r careless about our gradual death . i remember that i read in another weblog about the comparison of our attention to future of our society and choosing the hairdresser . Best
Posted by: shahla | April 19, 2006 01:19 PM
We have risk and consequence of risk. yes the risk is low, but it is still there. Just imagine the results if it wasnt your day and the previous person was HIV+ and it was passed on to you.
Posted by: Ramin | April 19, 2006 11:18 PM
The chances are low, but imagine how much it would suck if you get HIV that way! I'd much rather getting HIV while having sex, rather than while getting a haircut! :)
Posted by: M | April 20, 2006 02:34 AM
The risk and benefits in this case(war) are not the same for all the people involved in it. For some people deciding on this, there is a world afterwards as well. That makes a big difference in the outcome. I think you should solve that first.
Posted by: saeed | April 20, 2006 05:46 AM